Selling covered calls on MU · LIVE IBKR data · 2026-06-23
The covered-call decision guide. ● live
One position, one action, two knobs (how long, how far out). Real premiums, color-coded for your wind-down and your October tax line — including the two post-October expiries that are the live contenders.
Chapter 1
The two knobs (you sell calls; that's fixed).
Time sets whether the expiry lands before or after your October long-term date — the line that flips an assignment from a short-term tax hit to a clean long-term exit. Strike is picked by delta (≈ assignment probability), laddered 0.30 / 0.20 / 0.10 — the practitioner axis, and the one that maps to real liquid strikes at every expiry (σ doesn't: a 2σ strike a year out doesn't even list).
Chapter 2 · live anchor
ATM premium & the IV term structure.
Real ATM call premium and IV by expiry — an inverted curve (highest in the front, where the earnings event sits).
| Expiry | ATM call (live) | ATM IV |
|---|---|---|
| 3 DTE | $59 | 157% |
| 9 DTE | $78 | 126% |
| 38 DTE | $137 | 104% |
| 60 DTE | $212 | 103% |
| 115 DTE | $283 | 99% |
| 178 DTE | $338 | 96% |
| LEAPS | $404 | 93% |
Chapter 3
The matrix — live, color-coded for you.
Rows are the decision-relevant expiries — earnings week, a pre-October monthly, the two post-October contenders (115 & 178 DTE), and LEAPS. Columns are delta. Watch a given delta flip from amber (pre-Oct = short-term tax) to green (post-Oct = clean long-term exit).
aggressive income
the classic strike
conservative
Chapter 4
Your decision, in four questions.
Is earnings still ahead? (Yes — tomorrow.)
Sell nothing today. Short a call across a ~14% print is how an unwanted assignment happens.
Is the memory cycle topping?
This overrides everything. A 30% cyclical drop dwarfs the ~$8k tax saving from waiting — if you think it's rolling over, exit now and eat the short-term tax.
If no rush — before or after October?
Post-Oct, assignment is a clean long-term exit. The 115 & 178 DTE rows at ~0.20–0.30Δ are the contenders: real premium, liquid, and being called away is a feature.
Is the strike liquid? (Check OI.)
Pick where OI is real (tens-to-hundreds). The far tails are untradeable.
The tax cost of selling — short-term vs long-term
Selling 100 shares at a ~$100k gain, single NYC filer; the MU gain stacks on your other short-term gains. The whole short-vs-long gap is federal (NY+NYC ~$9.8k is identical either way). This is what an early (pre-October) assignment costs you — and it is small relative to the position.
2026-bracket estimates, single NYC filer; assumes other gains short-term. ~$5–10k is ~5–9% of the gain, <1% of net worth — a tilt, not a crux. A cycle-top signal should override it. Not tax advice.
Closing
The one move.
No cycle-top signal and no rush? Wait for tomorrow's print, then — once past October — sell a 115- or 178-DTE call at ~0.20–0.30Δ. You collect a real premium, and if MU runs through it you exit at long-term rates. If the cycle is turning, skip all of this and just sell the stock. The tax tilt is worth ~$5–10k; the cycle call is worth ~$35k+. Don't let the small one override the big one.